Category Archives: Wetlands

Spill Response: So Little, So Late and So Horrible

In today’s post I am going to discuss the horrific losses that we find in a world going to hell in a handbasket and how the spill exemplifies this process. Today the BP robots are finishing cutting off the final rubbish around the riser from the Blow Out Preventer, they are then starting to cut off the riser and will try to mount a cap to channel the flow. We will all be pleased if they mount a rising conduit.

Here are some points I want to consider today:

1.  A unique and separate point from all others is that when something of this magnitude happens I am not willing to eliminate the possibility of an act of war, piracy or terrorism by any party until the total investigation has occurred.

Then there are the more systemic points:

2. Had the deductible on the Oil Pollution Act been $100 million instead of $75 million and had the premium been 15 cents a barrel all this time instead of 8 cents  and then a graduated series of co-payments of say 25% to $2 billion, 50% $2-4 billion, 70% from $4 billion to the exhaustion of the fund — had such a sane policy been in force there would be less chance of a disaster and it would have been better managed. BP might find little reason to count most of us their enemies (assuming this is not piracy). This policy might have encouraged the development of clean energy alternatives, safer drilling practices and even a sound coastal policy. I again cite my own proposal. I encourage you to read it if you have not — it predates the crisis: https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2009/10/02/ideal-wetlands-policy-on-the-louisiana-coast/

3. Senator Mary Landrieu (not alone) has long demanded the manifestly fair and necessary revenue sharing by the state had that money been granted we would have had money to invest in coastal restoration.

4.This country is in many ways a tyranny which has betrayed all of its basic constitutional principles and few people have suffered more from that shift than the people of South Louisiana. The structure that have been imposed on the region in so many meanings of the word structure have been really destructive. I know what tyrranical means and so many instances of  tyrannical waste exist that I cannot list them all.

5. I may come out of this as a known enemy of the oil and gas industry. If so then it seems grossly unfair to me and to others like me to be put in that position. Although I have earned money from the wetlands and seafood industries directly I have written about and discussed for pay and for free the oil and gas industry. I also got a few hundred dollars of more or less direct oil exploration money once. It rankles, if  because of many very bad factors I did not choose, I am cast as a foe of drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil and gas have always been part of my life and community.

6. This situation is so bad in so many ways that it would take ages to write about how bad it is. The truth is in a vast catalogue of small and large horrors.

7.There is need for radical change. But radical change is usually bad.

Biggest US Spill: Living in the Age of Liquidation

This BP — Transocean spill  is not just another mess. This spill is historic and calls for a response in historic terms. It also must be seen in context. That context and response is what this post is about.  The liquid nature of the spill goes with the crisis of unstructured flow of migrants who are joined by the desire to make money flow around for no real reason. This joins with the government forcing racial groups to flow together in no structured way. This goes with an economy designed to liquidate all wealth and punish the kinds of wealth that does not flow quickly. In may ways this spill symbolizes our whole set of social disorders. 

We are facing the largest oil spill in US history. We had the failed Times Square bombing, the underwear bomber, the Fort Hood shooting and we have hundreds of thousands of people protesting  forcefully to proclaim that one should be able to stay here as long as one wants without documentation. Not all the Arizona law protesters want to say that but hundreds of thousands do. We have people in our congress advocating an unconstitutional ex post facto law against BP. Here again the nuance is that if Congress were saying they would issue letters of Marque and Reprisal against BP if they do not adequately deal with the spill I would not object (Britain would but not I). Our debt to revenue ratio is outrageously high and people largely believe we should all spend more to stimulate the economy.  We are still involved in two foreign wars. In my opinions all the things I mentioned above are only minor symptoms of the disease afflicting our society. We are a country in crisis, deep and serious crisis.

I am different from  most of those who are likely to read this blog as American citizens in that I support and advocate radical constitutional change. I advocate change which is revolutionary  — although I am willing to see that change come in the following Constitutional form: “or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two-thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three-fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three-fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” This quote makes up most of Article V (Article Five) of the Constitution.

The part I did not include is the first few words reproduced here and now ” The Congress, whenever two-thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, (or, on the Application of the Legislatures)” the words in parentheses are the words at the start of my quote above. All amendments in US history have been passed through the houses of congress and then ratified by the States. However, a constitutional convention summoned by  two-thirds of the States  and ratified by three-fourths of the States could effect total transformation of the country as long as every State retains equal votes in the Senate and the entirely new Constitution would be a formal and legal continuity of our current regime. The only role of Congress in this second path would be to choose whether State legislatures or State conventions should ratify the larger convention.  In the real world if a convention had been called then force of arms would be justified if (by no means certain) a Congress refused to act to make this one choice. Thus if three-fourths of the states can be convinced of the need for radical change then we can have it. And we do need radical change. It is time for our society to evolve. I have outlined the ideas for a new regime elsewhere in this blog.

We need to create a system which will value conservation, preservation, familial wealth, nature, honor and recognize that neither big business nor bureaucracy has all the answers and yet both have a role to play. The risks these spills and other things like the war on terror relate to or not adequately addressed in an eight year presidential administration. We need the kinds of changes we are very far from adopting so far.  The total destruction of our society is what is likely if we continue to follow the path we have been following .  As our society becomes more dysfunctional the rate of decay will increase. Making the right changes now will be very hard but making them later will be much harder.

We are partly destroying and may be largely destroying an estuary which is the product of processes ranging in millions, thousands and hundreds of years. We are doing this in days and months. We need a government with a loner term view of things. However, not just any old thing will do. We need to make  the right changes. I have tried to outline those changes elsewhere in this blog. But we will not have many more chances for good change. It will not be long before any effort we make will be the kind of desperate and frenzied reaction that seldom works out well — to say the least.  This may be our last chance to create change that is rational, wise and measured. 

So let us consider really  changing the government. We have a choice now. That will not be true forever.

BP Has Failed to Stop the Gusher: A Catalogue of My Blog’s Coverage

 

British Petroleum has announced that the “Top Kill” or dynamic kill option has not  worked and is being abandoned. They claim only 38 acres of Marsh have been damaged severely and that only 107 miles of coastline has been hit. However I live in distant Vermilion Parish and we have verified small amounts of oil contamination on our own coasts. There is so much we do not know. Everything is in flux and under a strain and pressure.

I want to give you the list of my blog posts on the subject of this spill in reverse chronological order. Perhaps there are some you have missed that would be of use to you in understanding this crisis. We are ready see this struggle continue indefinitely but I am using we in the broadest sense. I myself am not very involved in the struggle itself in the way that some other parties are involved. 

1. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/28/links-loss-and-the-laws-biggest-us-oil-spill/

2. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/27/the-largest-spill-in-us-history-more-links/

3. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/25/british-petroelum-spill-and-clean-up-crisis-goes-on/

4. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/24/two-bps-on-my-mind/

5. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/22/oil-and-gas-an-odd-argument-for-continuing/

6. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/22/twelve-questions-about-the-deep-water-horizon-gusher/

7. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/20/the-oil-spill-in-the-gulf-and-making-desperadoes/

8. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/18/yet-more-of-my-thoughts-on-the-oil-spill-and-a-few-links/

9. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/15/more-thoughts-about-the-oil-spill/

10. https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2010/05/12/the-deep-water-horizon-oil-spill-thoughts-about-the-crisis/

Links, Loss and the Laws: Biggest US Oil Spill

Well today there are a a variety of possible descriptions and some of them conflict as to the state of the dynamic kill of the gusher a mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico. Is the spill growing by crude oil and natural gas and if so by how much? Or is there only mud and seawater coming out now. Most television channels are showing only the top of the blow-out preventer and no longer showing the issuance from the riser. That makes it even harder to tell what is going on because the top of the preventer could be spewing mud only and it would mean much less than if the broken riser were also only spewing out mud. I mud is coming out of all leaks without oil then in fact as some have said they are cutting off the flow of oil while they pump.  Of course spewing drilling fluids is not perfect either but it would be a sign of progress. Nonetheless, this is a good time to turn to issues that are not so sensitive to the progress of events minute by minute.

After the Exxon Valdez disaster the laws were changed under the Oil Pollution Act. This Act had many good effects such as forcing all major players to file an emergency response plan and setting up emergency response under the Coast Guard. MAYBE: It had the very bad effect of having the responsible party do all the clean-up, then pay a 75 million dollar deductible and then tapping into a grossly underfunded indemnity or rainy day fund to compensate those injured. A sum of 75 million dollars would compensate for a minor interruption of the Louisiana Gulf Coast for about a minute. The remaining two billion or so in the current indemnity fund would constitute lost business insurance for less than a week in this region in a worst case scenario and would leave no money thereafter for other injuries than lost business. Creating a plan like this removes all incentives to have a responsible coastal policy at least on its face. To see what the laws are as described by the Environmental Protection Agency see the link below.    

http://www.epa.gov/lawsregs/laws/opa.html

The EPA and other parts of the government have built up some response capacities based on these laws. It is arguable that the regime under the Oil Pollution Act is often far better than it was under most statutory regimes likely to apply before the laws changed.  To see some of this response capacity as it is relevant here see the next link.

http://www.epa.gov/oilspill/index.htm 

On the other hand the insurance capacity is very low relative to real risk in this area. It is also true that such a disaster as this must be best mitigated before hand. This is best done by policies which may not be considered because of the current scheme. See my own ideas in the link below.

https://franksummers3ba.wordpress.com/2009/10/02/ideal-wetlands-policy-on-the-louisiana-coast/

The federal government of the United States of America is also very much engaged in regulating the industry. There is very little that the public has followed about the Mineral Management Service but you can look at their link below.

http://www.mms.gov/

The State of Louisiana has to deal with the terrible results and fight against the worst consequences of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. In order to fully know what there concerns are there are several agencies to check with. I am not going to repeat government links I gave before. I would encourage you to look at what Wildlife and Fisheries has to say in the next link.

http://www.wlf.louisiana.gov/

As you consider the environment and the culture one would also remember that Louisiana is a civil law jurisdiction governed by the Louisiana Civil Code and has a very different system of laws than the 49 Common Law states and the US Government in this regard. To begin to understand what this means see the next link.

http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/civil+law

To keep track of how Louisiana’s government  tracks environmental quality and see what issues have been addressed here see the next link. The Department of Environmental Quality has a close relationship with the federal EPA. 

http://www.deq.louisiana.gov/portal

To see the central electronic focus of the Louisiana government for this crisis see the next link.  There is little else that can be said of the many agencies and parishes responding  in this short blog post.

http://www.emergency.louisiana.gov/

Ironically, one of the State’s law schools had just held an academic conference on water quality and environmental law when this huge disaster occurred.  The environmental law issues have been important to Tulane Law School for a long time actually. See their link on the recent conference below.

http://www.law.tulane.edu/tlsOrgs/tels/telc/index.aspx

Perhaps some of my readership have seen James Carville and his wife addressing the President, the media and anyone who would listen about this crisis in the last few days. Well Mr. Carville will be addressing Louisiana State University’s Law School Graduating Class at commencement today I think. 

http://www.law.lsu.edu/index.cfm?geaux=newsandpublications.newsstories&pid=4097261D-1372-69E5-F7FF16FFC9B54892&bid=EF114F50-1372-69E5-F7A58C48228BF9F2

The President, Barack Hussein Obama, has been in Louisiana today addressing this crisis. I would urge all of you to take him up on his invitation to visit the White House online in regards to this crisis. Find two links for that purpose below.  

http://www.whitehouse.gov/

http://www.whitehouse.gov/deepwater-bp-oil-spill

One issue that has not been addressed is that there may be limits in what our curent governement can do beyond the Liability caps. Ultimately, things like frezing production or leases are a good way that Obama (whom I dislike and oppose) has found to show that he can overcome limits in his basic legal power over guilty parties and the industry. It is a poor substitute for good policy but it is better than weakness and surrender. I applaud the subtle and not linked use of this ploy. However, BP must largely be motivated by reputation, by pressure through the UK exerted from Louisiana and the Gulf Coast and in the real world by the possibility of extr-legal vengeance. The US constitution does not allow someone’s rights to be changed by retroactive laws. This may happen in practice but it is bad for our law. I applaud anyone who finds a color of right for doing the right but it is not simple. The state Louisiana finds herself in as regards law is another strong argument for constitutional change. The laws on the books MAY have done great violence to the rights of people here for no good reason. But there are some not all bad reasons. That is a difference to be discussed in a latter post. Governor Jindalhas thrown himself into this fray admirably. He and I are very different people and I applaud his effort to find success within this system We shall see what happens next.

I personally am in a disillusioned funk. I will try to post more original analysis when and if I feel a bit more cheery and focused. Until then if you are doing something to help — good luck and God bless your efforts.

The Largest Spill in US History more links…

The United States is likely in the midst of its largest oil spill ever recorded. The United States Geological Survey has estimated that the release is closer to a million gallons or over 20,000 barrels of oil per day than to the 5,000 barrel per day estimate recently used. The original 1,000 barrel or 42,000 gallon idea is completely forgotten.So the Exxon Valdez spill was 11,000,000 gallons and this spill has possibly been 30,000,000 already. Can anybody say wow!

Nobody has ever convinced all parties of the effects of any spill. Did the Valdez wipe out the herring fisheries in the Alaskan sound where the spill occurred?  We do not know but do know herring have greatly declined or disappeared in nearby areas.

There was a 140 million gallon spill in the Bay of Campeche in Mexico’s section of the Gulf of Mexico. This Ixtoc 1 spill ran on for a long time like this one may and occurred in the 1970s.  Many disagree on how much the nearby fisheries and eco-systems were affected. Some even say it led to a boom in shrimp catches somehow and then there are those who say it created instability in the shrimp populations that really reached it peak several years later.

Here is a link to the basic of the Ixtoc 1 incident. It is not very detailed. http://www.incidentnews.gov/incident/6250

For some idea of how commercial seafood industries and fishing businesses work in the modern world I recommend Urner Barry. Their Price Current is the premiere business publication of this industries hard-working and busy small offices in ver expensive and not very fancy buildings all over the world.  See this link. http://www.urnerbarry.com/

Mexico definitely is among the parties fearing that this spill may be  disastrous for them. Please check this link especially if you read Spanish.  http://www.oem.com.mx/oem/notas/n1626358.htm

For a chance to see what BP has to say for itself check this link: http://www.bp.com/bodycopyarticle.do?categoryId=1&contentId=7052055&nicam=USCSBaselineCrisis&nisrc=Google&nigrp=Branded_Crisis_Management-_General&niadv=General&nipkw=british_petroleum  There is also the site for BP as a whole. Check it out and contact them there if you wish. http://www.bp.com/bodycopyarticle.do?categoryId=1&contentId=7052055 I am in the same spirit providing a link to Transocean: http://www.deepwater.com/fw/main/Home-1.html It is worth noting that these links and any link can go dead over time if you are accessing this long after I wrote the post.

There are many government entities responding to this crisis. Among the most interesting is Plaquemines Parish in Louisiana in the USA.  However, the link content may change a great deal over time. Here is that link:  http://www.plaqueminesparish.com/

I am settling in for a lot more pain and misery.  I will probably post on this spill several more times.

British Petroelum Spill & Clean-Up Crisis Goes On -v1.1

I have had so much trouble with this post that it could make me paranoid. Goodness knows how many versions I have struggled with. The question is whether anything other than misery and struggle will ever be associated with this story. This whole region is reeling from this blow. But we are also trying to find the right ways to respond.  Fishing fleets are stranded or helping in cleaning up in most places. The current loss and the sense of anxiety is endless. These coasts support a significant part of even a worldwide ecosystem and fisheries and for the gulf region they are truly vital. But for local people they are almost the essence of life here.

Fishing fleets are largely stranded although some skim oil full-time

There are some families who have cared for oyster beds for five generations and have lost all of their oysters. One family establishment can be a tens of millions of dollar loss in assets and that is only if they can seed again from their wild reserves in estuaries and clean the beds they must strip and keep alive and together over years of heartbreaking work to help their children takeover. Many Brown Pelicans and their nests in rookeries are oiled. Fish and turtles are stressed. The struggle is bleak and just beginning. The pelican is on Louisiana’s flag is a sacred symbol in several religious traditions. Its health as a species has been fought for and it is the subject of the successful John Grisham novel The Pelican Brief. I went to Tulane Law School and dropped out like Darby Shaw the fictional female author of the fictional brief about pelicans and justices from which the novel takes its name. But this story is more sinister in my view whether or not it is as intentional as the plot in that novel. But I am no Darby Shaw. 

cleaning oil

I have had software trouble with every image including those of people scooping emulsified oil off of sandy beaches. I hope that image appears here after all. But whatever the reason for my struggle is tonight it is a small token of the real struggle. This is a struggle in which rigid and absorbent booms, chemical capture cages, berms, levees, flushing, and many other tactics will scarcely be enough. This is a struggle that cannot help but be against great odds. That is true even if every one behaves well. The parties have many reasons why they might not behave well.

BP CEO Tony H. is on site

It will not be nearly enough to find a way through ninety percent of this disaster real recovery will start when 99.9 % of the direct damage has been repaired. The eco-system is strained by our era’s world. But a real quality environment is the beginning of recovery. Nobody here is sure we can ever get there. Quality tourism, quality estuaries that contribute to the whole world in vital economic and ecological ways. Quality historic and cultural scenes that make this all workable as a demanding place to live. All this is threatened.  

 The BP executives claim there is a 70% chance they will shut down and in the well tomorrow.  We will see as this nightmare keeps rolling on for us now on May 25, 2010. What will the total picture of this crisis end up being? Will there be at least hope for the pelicans of the barrier islands, fro the spawning grounds, the estuaries and the people of these lands? 

Pelicans nest this time of year and in areas very vulnerable to an oil spill.

There is an almost unlimited catalogue of the risks involved in this mess. It is  the kind of situation that can become much worse very easily and is hard to make right. I ask those of you who can do something good to consider what good you can do. There are other needs in the world but the need to address this crisis is also very great.

Two BPs on My Mind

BP which has in the past been British Petroleum has been much in the news, in this blog and on my mind. That is how it ought to be. The beaches where Jean Lafitte sometimes sent in his parties in his smaller boats are fouled. Those same Grand Isle beaches where Kate Chopin observed white Creole culture relaxing in its sophisticated colonial style that was both uniquely French and uniquely US American and then set out in that context the events of the novella “The Awakening”– those same fine beaches are now covered in emulsified oil. Nests of Pelicans and other birds who already struggle in this world are found to have been fouled by oil in Plaquemines Parish. Fishing is closed and chaos devils the plans of many small towns. The British Petroleum leak ought to be on people’s minds. But what about the other B.P. —  The British Parliament.

The British Parliament opens tomorrow and has been closed and occupied with things other than being a parliament since the explosion of the Deep Water Horizon. Will the Parliament address the crisis in Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico in any way? That is the question which I cannot answer with certainty today. But it is on my mind.

Oil and Gas an Odd Argument for Continuing Drilling

This is an odd time to be posting this. I am much more upset about this spill than the average person. Yet for me it further argues that we should keep drilling for oil and gas for the foreseeable future. Yes, we will have to develope carbon recapture, cleaner burning fuels and concepts of fractionalization as yet unknown to us. Yes, we should be mixing som wastes with other elements to reclaim ancient man-made deserts in system developed by obscure scientists decades ago. But I truly believe we are lessening every year the vast deposits of oil and gas which are near the earth surface under sea or other wise. Oil and Gas people are so used to defending how crude and natural gas are harmless fossils that they lose sight of the reasons some Louisiana Acadians often welcomed early drillers. Use the stuff for some good purpose and get it out of the eco system. In a series of major volcanoes and earthquakes which our planet may undergo at some time the release of seas of oil and vast storms of gas is a terrible menace. Regular natural seepage has many positive ecological effects but the huge releases and sudden flows of history are seldom discussed and have sometimes been devastating to local bio-cycles. It offends my sense of proper resource management to pretend that failing to use oil and gas is not full of risk. The replacement of the energy they give is part of the risk. However, simply not removing vast deposits from near the surface while we can do so safely is another risk which the passive model of today’s environmental movement would find unthinkable and anathema to consider.

Twelve Questions about the Deep Water Horizon Gusher

Here are some questions to ask about this gusher and the accompanying events.

1. Who if anyone is doing or will do a careful evaluation of this gusher in the context of other overestimated and underestimated spills? When I say careful I mean taking into accounting spawning and nesting seasons, tropical storms, depth related temperature and  other relevant factors.

2. Is it time for the US, Louisiana or the industry to create a Comprehensive Spill Catalogue together with modeling software showing likely spill behavior in varied circumstances.

3. Is anyone going to see this as sufficient motivation to develope significant reserve and supplementary hatchery and microbial culture depots along the coast for varied crises to balance strains on the eco-system?

4. When the report came out that there was no leak early on was there any slim margin of truthiness or was it an outright lie?

5.Will rig design be addressed as regards deep water drilling especially?

6. Are labs exposing eggs of varied species to these gobs of oil to document effects created by the oil upon these eggs?

7.Can anything be done to run an ecologically  safe oil industry in an economy that runs increasingly on an irresponsible world model?

8. Since the private grief of eleven families has been so overwhelmed by public health and public interest concerns, is it right to set up some kind of public monument and public memorial to the eleven killed in this explosion?

9. Can the cleaning machines Kevin Costner is pitching be put to use quickly in areas where the oil is closest to hitting the most vulnerable spots and be made effective?

10. Is the well going to be controlled before the first hurricane comes through?

11. How much will be cleaned up before the first hurricane comes through?

12. How much oil has leaked into the gulf from this well, and how much gas has pushed through?

The Oil Spill in the Gulf and Making Desperadoes

The tragedy of the oil and gas spewing into the Gulf for more than a month now is something that sits heavily on my mind and is another sign of all that is wrong with the world. BP, the company that has been British Petroleum, has said this will be the largest oil spill response in history and it does seem that they are doing quite a bit. I do applaud their efforts to address this crisis compared to not addressing it at all. However,  it is a reminder to me of all the reasons why life is so often hellish and why it is almost impossible for me to have any hope in the world in which I live. All the difficulties that are involved in Louisiana’s managing wildlife refuges, large scale fishing and a major oil industry in a difficult  situation are part of the worldwide centuries long mega trend of stupidity and evil in a committed making of deserts and despair which traps people into vile cities and horrible jobs in near deserts that is what some people call civilization.  China is not perfect in any of its policies but the fact that it employs half its people as farmers is seen as an aberration or a weakness by most Westerners. While I would like to see things get better for these people among whom I lived I actually admire and respect their deep tie to agriculture. I look at the manors of medieval Europe with complex covenants, hedgerows,small plots, commons and Lord’s fields as well as a set of rules about shared infrastructure as a magnificent achievement. The enclosure and industrialization did some good but also very much evil in the world. There is a meaning of the word Arcadian that means ” a paradise of natural resource management”.  In other words for me there is no good side or upside to disabling fisheries and tourism and nature reserves and pressuring more people into the petrochemical economy here. Indeed I do not want to see the oil industry decline, not at all. But if I have to or had to choose then the oil & gas would give way to the wetlands management interests.  Only really confronting the world forces that are destroying us in a sane way will work.  I am afraid that I am not optimistic about any of the right things happening.   

This is a very bad time for me. I was one of a small minority of Americans who wanted a federal system to be our project in rebuilding Iraq and felt that the minute we accepted a nonfederal solution to their broken state we were closing off the best options and increasing the chances of the worst options and also that ending any real chance we would have an ally who would support our best national self. Among the small minority who were committed to the federal model of Iraqi redevelopment I was among the  few among this minority who favored a state or province for the Marsh Arabs. Basically, I favored a bicameral legislature with the lower house based on population and the upper house representing states or provinces. Those would have been Iraqi Kurdistan, a Sunni Arab Majority Province in the triangle,  an approximately equal Sunni and Shiite population Province, the special capital city province of Baghdad, a Perseo-Arab Shiite majority province and an Arab Shiite majority province as well as a Marsh Arab province.  More or less all media and political figures started off with a dismissing of the possibility of a Marsh Arab state. It was a sort of unanimous presumption. In the Philippines I was a very weak and insignificant force in trying to get the landed gentry, tribal peoples and Federation of Free Farmers as well as fishermen to see and discuss their common interests in an environment that was both preserved and exploited. In other words, managed with wisdom. In Mexico, I struggled to help garlic farmers and  goat herds interact more effectively with the world economy. None of these efforts were huge nor entirely unsuccessful but they were all failures as far as my own efforts were concerned.

I have long been involved in the struggles here related to  all of the things involved in this crisis. However, I am in many ways a remarkably unsuccessful person. I do not know what  the final lessons of this crisis will be but I do know that they are lessons we desperately need to learn well and are not likely to learn well. I alos believe that while people here are among the most conscientious and hard-working people in the world they are the kinds of people who can be driven to do desperate things if placed in desperate situations. The creation of a large class of desperadoes who are skilled and look like almost every population on Earth and who are skilled in the use of arms with honor is not something to be dismissed lightly. We must hope that things will get better and not become entirely desperate.